Description: Serbian separatist leader Milorad Dodik has apparently asked for Russia to block the EU and NATO initiative before the UN Security Council for the additional deployment of troops under the European peacekeeping mission in Bosnia. The announcement comes as a result of his arrest on 12 Mar which was prompted by Dodik’s refusal to uphold to rulings imposed by Bosnia’s international ruling administration. After the rejection of court summons, Dodik initiated laws which barred state judiciary and police institutions from the region which resulted in his arrest warrant. Dodik’s actions were criticized by NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte in his recent visit to Pristina and by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio who stated that Dodik threatened to destabilize the country and undermine public institutions in Bosnia.
Impact: Bosnia’s administrative division between Serbs and Croats with the Dayton Agreement from 1995 has been abused and exploited as a geopolitical playing field between Russia and the West. Recent turbulations and heightened political tensions coupled with the peacekeeping force buildup could threaten the country’s relative stability and incite further political and security crisis. The additional peacekeeping forces would contribute towards the existing elevated tensions as a higher impact crisis could potentially unfold in the midterm.