Description: The Foreign Minister of France, Jean – Noel Barrot, stated that if no continuance of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran is secured, a direct military confrontation with the US is almost inevitable. Barrot gave his statement after French President Emmanuel Macron convened with European heads of diplomacy in a confidential meeting. Europe would aim at conveying a diplomatic solution between both Iran and the US, as the latter has started a military buildup in the Diego Garcia naval and bomber base located on the Chagos Islands. Satellite imagery confirmed that 6 B – 2 Spirit bombers were dispatched to the base as a Pentagon announcement confirmed the buildup. Tehran has so far categorically denounced any attempt to negotiate with the US and reconfirmed the uranium enrichment to be for civilian use as opposed to being for the development of military nuclear arsenal.
Impact: The Iran – US tensions are at their apex as recent developments such as the US bombardments of Houthi targets and the military buildup in the Diego Garcia base have showcased. Iran’s continuous refusal to approach negotiations indicates that the Islamic Republic expects support from its key allies in Russia and China. Europe’s involvement on the issue currently borders irrelevance since the dissolution of transatlantic relations with the US. Potential avoidance of military confrontation could be achieved if Russia and China decisively enter the negotiating fold and insert themselves as mediators between the US and Iran. The presence of significant US naval and military assets so far represent a deterrence measure although US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated they could be used to directly attack the Islamic Republic. Direct conflict between the US and Iran for the time being is highly improbable. Direct confrontation would plunge the entire Middle East into another all-out prolonged war for which both the US and Iran aren’t currently prepared.