Description: Joint intelligence reports from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the intelligence directorate of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JSOC) indicated that Israel would directly attack Iran by early midyear. The report entailed Israeli intelligence findings that Iranian defense capabilities have been significantly depleted since the last missile exchange between the countries. The apparent target would be Iranian nuclear facilities Fordow and Natanz as Iran has bolstered its nuclear capabilities since the US withdrawal from the nuclear negotiations in 2016, according to the IAEA.
Impact: Iran’s defensive capabilities have been seriously weakened in the past year and Israel would aim at exploiting such weaknesses to launch preemptive attacks to further incapacitate Iran militarily. Direct attack upon Iran’s nuclear facilities could prompt a severe response as Iran scrambles for support from both Russia and China. Israel would facilitate US help in operations and intelligence if a preemptive attack is planned since Iran’s operational capabilities in the region are also significantly depleted. Tensions could escalate as Iran’s allies such as China and Russia could pressure key focal geopolitical points across the globe such as the Ukraine and South China Sea theaters to alleviate the pressure.