Description: The number of sanctioned ships within the Russian exportation fleet has significantly increased in the past months and the Russian state turned to its fleet of unsanctioned ships in order to continue to export oil. So far Russia has banked on their shadow fleet to export crude oil in order to enlarge their war chest and supply military means to its troops on the ground in Ukraine. The estimated number of ships within the shadow fleet exceeded 1,300 with most of them being flagged by sanctions which disrupted Russian oil exports. The unsanctioned ships would be much more difficult to detect since a precise number of vessels hasn’t been determined.
Impact: Russia’s war economy hangs in the balance as EU and US sanctions intensified in the past couple of months. Turning towards the fleet of unsanctioned vessels could be a signal of desperate move but on the other hand could substantially bolster the presently crumbling Russian economy. The war efforts in Ukraine directly depend on Russia’s ability to export their natural resources in that aspect, EU and the US should increase maritime control and enhance the level of economic sanctions in order to prevent access to more funds for Russia’s war chest.